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Squad Market Value vs. Performance – Ligue 1

With the abrupt end of Ligue 1 due to the pandemic and the new victory of Paris Saint-Germain, we present you the relationship between the squads’ market value and the league standings in the championship as well as the impact on that valuation due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The big winner in this analysis is, without a doubt, Stade de Reims by having reached the 5th position in the championship presenting only the 13th most valuable squad (78 million Euros on 07/2019 and 74 million on 07/2020). With a very low record of goals scored and conceded (26 vs. 21), the good performances of Hassane Kamara, Yunis Abdelhamid, Xavier Chavalerin, and Predrag Rajkovic contributed a lot to this achievement. We recall that Stade de Reims, this season, also presented only the 4th lowest average salary in the competition as we have previously presented here.

Stade Brest also stood out, reaching the 14th position in the championship with the least valued squad at the beginning of the competition and the 2nd lowest average salary per player in Ligue 1. This season, Gautier Larsonneur and Gaetan Charbonnier stood out.

On the other hand, the big disappointment turned out to be AS Saint-Étienne which, with a squad currently valued at around 74 million Euros and the 10th most valuable squad at the start of the season, was unable to go beyond the 17th place in the French league.

Between the 1st of April and the 15th of June, the market values ​​of the squads suffered an abrupt drop due to the pandemic, about 18%, with PSG being the most harmed due to the devaluation of its players by about 177 million Euros.

Market values corresponding to 7/15/2019 and 7/15/2020.

COVID-19 impact (difference between the values at 4/1/2020 and 6/15/2020).

Values in million of Euros.

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Economic Impact of the 19/20 UEFA Champions League in Portugal

Article originally published at www.totalfootballanalysis.com

Still with 4 matches of the round of 16 to be played, on the 17th of June, UEFA announced that the Champions League quarter-finals, semi-finals, and final will take place in Lisbon, at the Sport Lisboa e Benfica Stadium (will host the final) and José Alvalade Stadium, belonging to Sporting Clube de Portugal. The quarter-finals and semi-finals will be played in only one leg. A decision is still pending regarding the location of the remaining matches of the round of 16 that may take place in the stadiums of Barcelona, ​​Bayern Munchen, Juventus, and Manchester City or in Portugal, at Estádio do Dragão, belonging to Futebol Clube do Porto and D. Afonso Henriques Stadium, home of Vitória Sport Clube. For now, the presence in Lisbon of the surprising Atalanta, Atlético de Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and RB Leipzig are guaranteed.

 

The cities chosen by UEFA

 

Year after year, major European cities are bidding to host the final of the world’s biggest competition, the UEFA Champions League. In addition to having announced the new venue for this year’s final, the cities where 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 editions will be held are already known. Between 1993, the year of the first final included in the latest format of the competition, and 2024, there will be 22 stadiums from 20 cities in 14 countries that will have received the 32 finals of the competition with special emphasis on Germany with 6 editions and, in particular, for Munich with 4 finals.

 

When analyzing the location of the finals, we see that there is a clear preference for the countries of the so-called “Big-5” (Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1, Premier League, and Serie A). Thus, in 2024, Germany, Spain, France, England, and Italy will have received 19 of the 32 finals (59%). Regarding the remaining countries, three “peripherals” stand out: Turkey, Greece, and Portugal, with two finals.

The primacy for the 5 countries of the main European leagues is obviously not be unrelated to the commercial component since they will tend to have more capacity to generate and enhance revenue through their brands, their purchasing power, the centrality in the European continent and their transport facilities.

 

The economic impact of the last finals

 

The economic impact in the cities that receive the final of the competition is fundamentally related to stays in hotels and other tourist accommodation, restaurants, other tourist activities, and other services such as security, hospitality, and sponsorships. As you can see in the graph below, the impact on cities varied between 45 million Euros in Rome in 2009 and 53 million in Cardiff more recently.

In 2011, Barcelona and Manchester United faced each other in London with the Blaugrana winning 3-1 with Pep Guardiola “tiki-taka” and Messi as the leader. It is estimated that the final between the two giants generated 52 million Euros and about 110 thousand people traveled to the English capital. In 2017, in Cardiff, the final between Real Madrid and Juventus generated 53 million Euros, the highest value in the finals analyzed and brought about 200 thousand people to the city.

 

Regarding the Lisbon final in 2014, between the Spanish teams of Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid, it is estimated that the economic impact for the Portuguese capital was around 50 million Euros. According to studies carried out, it is believed that 54% of this amount (27M €) was associated with stays, 22% (11M €) with catering, 7% (3.5M €) with other tourist activities and 17% (8.5M €) to other services. Lisbon airport registered an increase of 10 thousand passengers at the weekend of the match, representing an increase of 20% compared to the usual flow and there were about 50 thousand overnight stays in Lisbon and 70 thousand visitors.

The purchasing power of fans who visit the city that hosts the final contributes to these values. As we can see in the graph below, when combining the GDP per capita of the countries of the clubs represented in the final, the Lisbon event in 2014 presents the lowest value of the last 11 editions. The 2013 final in London, between Bayern Munchen and Borussia Dortmund, had the highest value.

The cities, in addition to obtaining revenue and commercial impact in the short-term with the event, also obtain long-term dividends. 2014 final in Lisbon contributed, together with other major events that took place in recent years, such as Euro 2004, to increase the reputation of the city and the country as an organizer of major events. Thus, cities end up profiting in the long run with an increase in tourism, sponsorship, and a greater likelihood of hosting other major events.

 

UEFA Champions League in Portugal – What impact can we expect?

 

First of all, we must take into account the fact that the model in which Portugal will host the competition is totally new since, at least, there will be 7 matches in Lisbon instead of just the final. Second, we must also pay attention to the fact that the presence of the public inside the stadiums is also an unknown factor due to the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, it is important to consider that international flights are being resumed, allowing fans from the clubs to come, even in the event that they are unable to watch the matches inside the sports venues.

 

Thus, based on the values ​​mentioned above and two different scenarios, we present an estimate regarding the expected economic impact.

 

Scenario 1 – No audience at the stadiums

  • 8 teams, staff, UEFA, journalists, sponsors and some fans who move regardless of not being able to access the stadiums – 10,000 people representing 15% of the 2014 flow:
    • Stays in hotel units – 5.4 million Euros
    • Food & Beverage – 1.65 million euros
    • Other tourist activities – 0.5 million euros
    • Other services (considering being affected by only 30% due to the higher number of matches compared to 2014) – 5.95 million euros
      • Total estimated impact = 13.5 million Euros

 

Scenario 2 – Stadiums with 33% maximum capacity (in line with what is being discussed by La Liga)

  • Assuming 20,000 people per game, 10,000 allocated to each of the 8 clubs and assuming that they will also attend the semi-finals and finals if their club qualifies, it has a maximum potential of 80,000 people;
    • Stays in hotel units – 43.2 million Euros
    • Food & Beverage – 17.6 million Euros
    • Other tourist activities – 5.6 million euros
    • Other services – 13.6 million euros
      • Total estimated impact = 80 million Euros

 

Regardless of the estimates that can be made, it is certain that the realization of the final stage of the UEFA Champions League will bring benefits, especially in this phase, helping to resume the hotel and food & beverage industry, the media attention and image of the country by welcoming, at least, 8 teams composed of elements with many followers and with a high market value.

 

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Performance vs. Salaries – Ligue 1

We end this series of articles with the clubs from Ligue 1.

First, we will look at each season between 2016/2017 and 2019/2020 to analyze which clubs achieved better results between these variables. Then, we will examine the 14 clubs that remained on Ligue 1 during these seasons and how they performed compared with how much they paid on average per player.

2016/2017

In the edition of 2016/2017, AS Monaco won the competition also presenting the 2nd highest annual average salary per player.

From a positive perspective, Nantes achieved the 7th position in the competition with only the 2nd lowest average salary amount per player. In the opposite perspective, Bastia was the case with less success finishing in the last place with the 12th highest average annual salary per player.

None of the clubs presented the same position in the salaries ranking as they did in the competition.

2017/2018

In the next season, Paris Saint-Germain was crowned champion with the highest annual average salary per player.

Dijon and Guingamp were the surprises achieving the 11th and 12th positions in the league with only the 17th and 18th highest salary values. On the opposite side, Lille was again the case with less success finishing in the 17th place with the 7th highest amount per player.

PSG, AS Monaco, Girondins Bordeaux and Strasbourg presented the same position in the salaries ranking as they did in the competition.

2018/2019

In the 2018/2019 edition of the Ligue 1 it was not different and PSG won once more the competition presenting the highest annual average salary per player.

From a positive perspective, Nimes achieved the 9th position in the competition with the lowest salary value. In the opposite perspective, AS Monaco was the case with less success finishing in 17th place with the 4th highest average annual salary per player.

PSG, Olympique Lyonnais and Angers presented the same position in the salaries ranking as they did in the Premier League.

2019/2020

With the cancellation of the season due to the pandemic, PSG won the league once again with the highest annual average salary per player of the league.

On the positive side, Stade Reims performed incredibly well finishing in the 5th position in the competition with the 17th highest salary amount per player. In the opposite perspective, Saint Étienne was the case with less success occupying the 17th place with the 6th highest average annual salary per player.

Only PSG presented the same position in the salaries ranking as it did in the Premier League.

2016/2017 to 2019/2020 – Which club profits more from the players’ salaries

Finally, we analyzed the performance and salaries of the 14 clubs that took part in the Ligue 1 between 2016/2017 and 2019/2020.

The giant Paris Saint-Germain is the club with the highest average annual salary per player. Nantes and Angers were the clubs with more success when comparing sporting performance and salaries since, on average, they achieved the 10th and 12th places with only the 13th and 15th highest average amounts per player.

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Clubs that take more advantage of Ball Possession

Goals are Football’s life, we all know it. In addition to the spectacle it provides, it allows clubs to accumulate points to achieve their goals, sporting or financial.

Depending on their involvement, the squads they have, their game culture, the success of their sporting and business strategies and the challenges caused by opponents, they present different volumes of scored goals and, in specific cases, score less than others but manage to obtain a significant number of points allowing them to achieve comfort throughout the seasons.

Each club adapts its strategy to its objectives and constraints and ends up adopting different game models that converge in greater or lesser percentages of ball possession.

Football Industry analyzed this issue verifying the performance of 73 clubs that remained in the main divisions of Germany, Spain, France, England, Italy, and Portugal between the seasons 2014/2015 and 2018/2019.

Thus, we present below the ranking of the teams that have the best relationship between ball possession and goals scored, namely, reaching a greater number of goals with a lower percentage of ball possession.

 

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KPMG Football Clubs’ Valuation: The European Elite 2020

KPMG Football Benchmark released last Thursday its 5th edition of the report on the enterprise value of clubs. Thus, due to the crisis caused by the pandemic of COVID-19, these values ​​will tend to fall due to the necessary market adjustments.

As in previous reports, Real Madrid and Manchester United occupy the first two places in the ranking followed by Barcelona, ​​who came to occupy the third position that belonged to Bayern Munchen, a club that in 27 years has never presented negative financial results.

Another surprise of this edition is the lack of Serie A clubs in the Top-10 since Juventus dropped to 11th place.

Galatasaray was the club that grew the most compared to the previous year (49%) followed by Paris Saint-Germain and Internazionale.

On the other hand, Real Madrid takes 1st place for the third time since 2016 mainly due to the three UEFA Champions League won and a 41% growth in commercial revenues. Manchester United maintained the 2nd position due to the strength of its brand and a significant accumulated EBIT. In 3rd place, Barcelona recorded a 50% growth in operating revenues and 52% in commercial revenues since 2016, thus leading it to rise in one place compared to last year.

Taking into account the group of 32 clubs that are part of this ranking, between 2016 and 2020, its value has always grown (51% accumulated) mainly due to a 44% increase in operating revenues over this period. All revenue streams increased, with broadcasting revenues being the main highlight with an increase of 65% while matchday and commercial revenues grew by 22% and 39%, respectively. Another important fact is the decreasing dependence of 25 of the 32 clubs on matchday revenues.

At the same time, it is important to note that, over the 5 editions of this report, the weight of the Top-10 in the total enterprise value of the 32 clubs has decreased by 4% to 66%.

Regarding individual clubs, in percentage terms, since 2016, Olympique Lyonnais was the club whose value grew the most (193%) followed by Tottenham and Internazionale. In absolute terms, Liverpool was the one that most saw its enterprise value grow (1,385 million euros). On the other hand, AC Milan was the only one to lose value over the years. Concerning financial results (EBIT), Tottenham is the outstanding club with an accumulated value of 439 million Euros.

Celtic FC (Scotland), PSV Eindhoven (Netherlands), Olympique de Marseille and AS Monaco (France), Fenerbahçe SK (Turkey), and Sporting CP (Portugal) were almost at the Top-32 in 2020.

Enterprise Value Ranking (Top-32)

 

Clubs’ Enterprise Value Variation Ranking (2016-2020)

 

Enterprise Value Variation Ranking by Country (2016-2020)

Looking at the clubs that were part of the editions of this report between 2016 and 2020, and aggregating them by the country, it appears that the value of the clubs from Ligue 1 has been the one that has gone up the most (74%). In absolute terms, the 1st place belongs to the Premier League clubs (6,225 million Euros).

 

Finally, between 2016 and 2020, English clubs were the ones that gained the most weight in the total value of the top-32, comprising 39% of it in 2016 and 41% in 2020.

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Scored Goals Profitability

In a difficult time for Football when some championships were canceled and others will soon be resumed with restrictions, Football Industry returns with new articles.

Goals are Football’s life, we all know it. In addition to the spectacle it provides, it allows clubs to accumulate points to achieve their goals, sporting or financial.

Depending on their involvement, the squads they have, their game culture, the success of their sporting and business strategies and the challenges caused by opponents, they present different volumes of scored goals and, in specific cases, score less than others but manage to obtain a significant number of points allowing them to achieve comfort throughout the seasons.

Football Industry analyzed this issue verifying the performance of 73 clubs that remained in the main divisions of Germany, Spain, France, England, Italy, and Portugal between the seasons 14/15 and 18/19.

At first sight, based on the clubs and period mentioned above, Liga NOS and Ligue 1 are the championships with the highest profitability of scored goals (each scored goal represents, on average, 1.10 obtained points) followed by Liga Santander and Serie A with 1.04, Premier League with 1.02 and Bundesliga with 0.95.

These results are mainly related with the lower average number of goals scored by Portuguese and French clubs in contrast to other championships, compared to the number of points that are obtained at the end of the season. Thus, as an example, in the last 5 seasons, on average, Portuguese clubs reached 47 points scoring 44 goals, while in Germany, clubs needed to score 49 goals to achieve 47 points.

Other data can also be analyzed to further define this reality, namely, the average number of shots per game and conversion rate (percentage of shots turned into goals). In this scope, considering seasons 16/17, 17/18, and 18/19, Liga NOS has the lowest average number of shots per game, the same as Liga Santander (12.1), with Serie A having the highest value (13.4). However, Liga NOS has the highest conversion rate (11.5%) followed by Bundesliga (11.4%). Nevertheless, it is important to note that when we remove SL Benfica, FC Porto and Sporting CP from the analysis, both the number of shots per game and the conversion rate decrease to 11.3 and 9.9%, respectively.

A relationship between the points earned and conversion rates of the 73 clubs analyzed between 14/15 and 18/19, allows the observation of clubs global behavior, followed by its individual analysis compared to a prediction of its performance.

Thus, we present below a ranking of the 73 clubs according to their ability to turn their scored goals into points. We found that clubs like Nantes, Atlético de Madrid, and Juventus achieved a better average number of points than expected due to the conversion rate they showed and the relationship shown in the graph above.

Nantes:

  • Average number of points between 14/15 and 18/19: 49
  • Average conversion rate between 14/15 and 18/19: 7.9%
  • Expected average number of points between 14/15 and 18/19: 42
  • Result: 7 points higher than expected

Atlético de Madrid:

  • Average number of points between 14/15 and 18/19: 80
  • Average conversion rate between 14/15 and 18/19: 13.8%
  • Expected average number of points between 14/15 and 18/19: 72
  • Result: 8 points higher than expected

Juventus:

  • Average number of points between 14/15 and 18/19: 91
  • Average conversion rate between 14/15 and 18/19: 12.9%
  • Expected average number of points between 14/15 and 18/19: 67
  • Result: 24 points higher than expected
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